Can You Really Compare Trent Richardson To Adrian Peterson?

Trent Richardson is the best running back to come out of college since Adrian Peterson. Versions of this phrase has been used on countless occasions ever since the 2012 NFL Draft but, how accurate are they? Will their rookie years be comparable? Is Trent Richardson the next Adrian Peterson?  From a fantasy prospective I would have to disagree; at least not for the 2012 year.

In 2007 Adrian Peterson tore up the NFL during his rookie year with his blistering speed and explosiveness raking up 1,341 rushing yards and 12 touchdowns for Minnesota. If you are expecting similar numbers from Trent Richardson in his upcoming rookie year with the Cleveland Browns then I am afraid that you might be in for a surprise. I am not questioning the overall talent Richardson brings to the organization as he has the potential and skill set that a team like the Browns can build around but, to have an effective running game a team needs much more than an elite running back.

The 2007 Minnesota Vikings arguably had the best run blocking in the NFL, with a solid offensive line anchored by Pro Bowl LT Steve Hutchinson as well as seasoned veteran, and Pro Bowl FB, Tony Richardson. With all of this talent aiding Peterson to move the ball up the field, Peterson was able to take advantage of the holes he was given and use his elusiveness to break free for a game changing run. The run protection Peterson had in 2007 cannot be comparable to the run protection the 2012 Cleveland Browns will have. Other than Joe Thomas, the Brown’s do not have an experienced player on the front line in either the starting positions or backup positions.

Also, Owen Marecic is not known to be an elite FB in the NFL like Tony Richardson was. These holes that Peterson was provided that helped him gain more yards might not be as available for Trent Richardson in the upcoming year. As skillful as he is, I do not believe Richardson can make up for the lack of run protection he will have to endure with the Cleveland blockers. In standard fantasy football leagues, a 30 yard touchdown run gives a player eight more fantasy points than a 10 yard run with no touchdown. These break out runs to the endzone will be harder to come by for Richardson in 2012 when compared to Peterson in 2007.

You also have to take into consideration that Adrian Peterson had a viable backup in Chester Taylor who picked up some of the workload (238 carries for Peterson, 157 carries for Taylor). I do not see offensive coordinator Brad Childress giving either Brandon Jackson or Montario Hardesty 157 carries, which would mean that Richardson would have the majority of the workload fall on him. Fantasy football enthusiasts might see that as a positive for Richardson since he will not be in a backfield committee but, I don’t see it quite that way. With Richardson’s ground and pound style of play, giving him such a high predicted work load with the lack of run blocking he seems he will have does not bode well for his chances of becoming injured. Can Richardson really stay healthy for a full 16 games under these circumstances? In my opinion, that’s a no.

Even if Richardson can somehow produce well in fantasy football, the risk of being absent for a portion of the season will hurt his fantasy value. Take a look at Darren Mcfadden - he puts up big numbers when he plays but, when he's in the trainer's room for the last nine games of the season, it does not benefit your fantasy team. I see can see the same outcome potentially happening to Richardson if he isn't provided with a legitimate backup running back or better run protection sometime soon.

Cleveland also plays in the AFC North which is arguably the hardest division a running back can play in, let alone a rookie running back. They’ll be seeing defenses such as Pittsburgh, Baltimore, and Cincinnati; all of whom were in the top ten in rushing defense in 2011. In 2007, Peterson played in a division with the Green Bay Packers, Detriot Lions, and Chicago Bears who were 14th, 23rd, and 24th in rushing defense respectively. Peterson did not have to worry about playing the top rushing defenses for the majority of his season where as Richardson will have to play them six times during the 16 game season. If Richardson is going to be productive in fantasy football then he is going to have to put up big numbers against teams that rarely give up stellar games to running back's.

Peterson had a total of 232.9 fantasy points in 2007 as a rookie running back, which is extremely hard to match no matter how much talent you possess. Although he was the number three overall selection in this year’s NFL draft, I do not predict Richardson to have the rushing yards and touchdowns Peterson had in his rookie year. So if you plan on picking Richardson for your 2012 Fantasy teams, do not pick him higher than as a low end No. 2 RB.

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