Elite Tight Ends: Gronkowski, Graham, and Fleener?

Last year can easily be dubbed as “the year of the tight ends”, based on the rising stars that are exploding into the NFL at the position. New England Patriots’ tight end, Rob Gronkowski and New Orleans Saints’ tight end, Jimmy Graham recorded a combined 189 receptions, 2,637 receiving yards, and 29 touchdowns in the 2011 campaign. Their massive success last year has really raised the bar for the rest of the tight ends in 2012 so, the question is, who has the potential to become an elite tight end next year?

One player that, when I look through the tapes, I see having very similar qualities to Gronkowski and Graham is Indianapolis Colts’ tight end, Coby Fleener. Fleener was taken 34^th overall in the 2012 NFL draft, and the first tight end to be picked. Like Gronkowski and Graham, Fleener is a tall, athletic tight end (6’6” and 250 lbs) who has great jumping abilities. Fleener has proven during his collegiate career at Stanford that he is not afraid to jump over defenders and come down with the ball, which is why Andrew Luck felt comfortable throwing him the ball in the redzone (10 redzone touchdowns in 2011).

Fleener also has explosive speed off the line for a man his stature, running the 40-yard dash in an impressive 4.45 seconds at Stanford’s Pro Day evaluation in 2012. With agility such as this, it will be hard for opposing defenders to keep up with the athletic tight end. Not only will they have to make sure to keep pace with Fleener but, they will have to obtain elite ball positioning and jumping abilities as well. Fleener recorded a vertical jump of 37 inches, which means that the ball can be thrown over nine and a half feet in the air and he can still get his hands on it. This rookie will be a match up nightmare for any defense in the league.

It also does not hurt that the guy who will be throwing him the ball in Indianapolis is his college QB, Andrew Luck. Fleener has been Luck’s go to guy for the past three seasons at Stanford, and that chemistry should not die now that they are both in the NFL. It is known that a rookie QB is not shy to throw it to an athletic, reliable TE so, Fleener’s statistics should only rise in Indianapolis.

Indianapolis does not have what you would call a star studded line up of receivers for Luck to throw it to either. Austin Collie, Donnie Avery, and Reggie Wayne will more than likely be the top three wide outs in 2012. Both Collie and Avery have never eclipsed 700 receiving yards in their careers, and are quite injury prone, while Wayne used to be considered an elite receiver but, age is not on his side playing in his 12^th this up-coming season. It is not a farfetched statement to say that Fleener has the highest probability of becoming Luck’s go to target in 2012.

Based on the athletic talent Fleener possesses, the familiarity his has with his quarterback, and the situation he finds himself in, playing for the Indianapolis Colts, I believe Fleener can become the next elite tight end in the NFL. He may, or may not reach elite status in his rookie year but, the potential is there. I expect that he will record 850+ receiving yards, along with 8+ touchdowns in 2012.

For more Fantasy Football advice follow me on twitter @DannyFantasyFB

Rookie Wide Receivers To Draft In Fantasy Football

Every fantasy footballer wants to draft the player who ends up breaking out in the upcoming fantasy football year. With wide receivers such as Victor Cruz, AJ Green, and Julio Jones being picked up in the late rounds in most fantasy drafts last year, who will be the steals of this draft? Below are some rookies that were drafted in this year’s NFL Draft who I believe are capable of producing fantasy numbers in the top 10 or 15 at the wide receiver position.

Stephen Hill (New York Jets) – Hill played two years at Georgia Tech where he became known as a game changing deep threat. With nearly 30 receiving yards per catch, Hill can open up the defense with his outstanding speed. Not only that but, he is also quite tall at 6’4” so, he has the capabilities to jump above the opposing defenders when the ball is in the air at the point of catch, something he did quite well at Georgia Tech. Hill (who had a 40-yard dash time of 4.36 seconds at the NFL Combine) is comparable to a bigger and stronger version of DeSean Jackson (who had a 40-yard dash time of 4.35 seconds at the NFL combine) due to his explosiveness off the line and his big play abilities.

The New York Jets picked Hill in the second round (45^th overall) in the 2012 NFL Draft. With Plaxico Burress no longer on the team, Hill can fill in opposite to Santonio Holmes in the Jets starting lineup. I would consider Hill to be a No. 3 fantasy wideout, with less emphasis in PPR leagues but, who has the potential to be a high end No. 2 or low end No. 1 fantasy wideout.

Mohamed Sanu (Cincinnati Bengals) – Sanu played three season at Rutgers piling up 210 receptions and was picked in the third round (83 overall) in the 2012 NFL Draft by the Cincinnati Bengals. Sanu even broke the Big-East single season reception record with 115 receptions. The record was previously held by Arizona Cardinals’ receiver, Lary Fitzgerald. Sanu does not have overwhelming speed but, what he does posses is the ability to find the open areas in the middle of the field. He is not afraid to put his body in the way of an opposing defender so he can make the catch. With his great body positioning, as well as excellent hands, Sanu will be thrown to often in the young Cincinnati Bengals’ passing game.

With Jerome Simpson gone, AJ Green is now seen as the sole deep threat, so there will be more of an opportunity for Sanu to run routes down the middle of the field, and provide a set of reliable hands on 3^rd down. I would consider Sanu to be a No. 2 fantasy wide receiver in standard leagues, and a No. 1/No. 2 fantasy wide receiver in PPR leagues.

Alshon Jeffery (Chicago Bears) – Jeffery, two time All-American, played three years with South Carolina where he averaged over a touchdown a game in his final two seasons. He is a powerful receiver with great jumping ability and precise body positioning, which will make him a threat in the red-zone for the Chicago Bears, who drafted Jeffery in the second round (45^th overall) of the 2012 NFL Draft. Although the Chicago offense already has names like Brandon Marshall and Johnny Knox in the lineup, the overwhelming potential Jeffery brings to the passing game is undeniable. It is hard for opposing defense’s to contain a receiver of his size (6’4” and 230 lbs) in the end-zone so expect him to see a large amount of red-zone passing thrown his way.

With an experienced quarterback such as Jay Cutler behind center, I believe Jeffery has the potential to produce for the Bears’ offense, especially in the red-zone. I would consider Jeffery to be a No. 3 fantasy wide receiver with the potential of being a high end No. 2 fantasy wide receiver.

For more Fantasy Football advice follow me on twitter @DannyFantasyFB

Jets Quarterback, Tim Tebow or Mark Sanchez?

It has been a while since the New York Jets have had some controversy at the quarterback position but, now that Tim Tebow is suiting up for the green and white, Mark Sanchez is no longer a sure-fire lock to start each game. So if you plan on picking a Jet quarterback in your fantasy draft, which one (Tebow or Sanchez) will be more productive for your team?

With Rex Ryan calling the shots anything can happen, especially after having an 8-8 record and missing out on the playoffs. During the offseason the Jets lost some key offensive weapons such as wide receiver Plaxico Burress, and running back LaDainian Tomlinson. Based on last season, having the 21^st ranked passing offense and the 22^nd ranked rushing offense, not only do the Jets have to replace these players but, they have to replace them with other players that will increase the offensive output they had last year.

So far the Jets have signed wide receiver Chaz Schilens as well as former Bronco quarterback Tebow. I do not believe Schilens is comparable to Burress as a red zone threat, although he could improve on his 23 receptions from last year by lining up opposite to Santonio Holmes or even in the slot back position; depending on how soon rookie wide receiver, Stephen Hill, develops. With Tomlinson out of the picture, Shonn Greene would be the every down back with Joe McKnight and Terrance Ganaway fighting for the backup role.

With an offensive line that has been no better than average since the departure of Damian Woody, I would say that this is not the offense Ryan is going to want to see out on the field during week one, if they keep Sanchez as the starting quarterback.

Now if we change it up and put new comer Tebow as the starting quarterback then this changes the entire offense. With the treat of a boot leg by Tebow at any time during the game, opposing defenses would have to try and contain the quarterback by dropping an extra linebacker in the box to make sure Tebow does not get to the outside and gain valuable yards. This increases the chance for a one-on-one mach up in the secondary, and if (this is still a strong if) Tebow can get the ball to the correct match up on the field then this can allow for a more efficient Jets offense. Also, when Tebow played in Denver he, along with Willis McGahee created the No. 1 rushing attack in the league as Denver had 164.5 rushing yards per game. We all know how Ryan values a strong running game.

Here are some more stats from last season:
Sanchez had an average of 15.82 fantasy points per game while Tebow had an average of 18.11 fantasy points per game.
Sanchez led his team to an 8-8 record (2-6 on the road) causing his team to miss the playoffs while Tebow led his team to a 7-4 record (5-1 on the road) which brought his team to being the top team out of the AFC West Division.

Even if Mark Sanchez starts in week 1, I do not see the offense being strong enough to win games. When/If that occurs, Jets fans will be wanting to see Tebow. Ryan is going to play who he thinks is going to win more games for his team, and due to the offseason changes that were made, I believe the only stand out player that can cause more of an offensive production is the Florida Gators' product, Tebow. If Tebow starts more games for the Jets, which I believe he will, then he is more valuable to your fantasy team than Sanchez.

For more Fantasy Football advice follow me on twitter @DannyFantasyFB

Top Fantasy Quarterbacks, Why Not Andy Dalton?

With all the talk about picking up a top end quarterback in the first couple rounds, a player I’ve noticed that has been left out of the discussion is Cincinnati Bengals QB, Andy Dalton. Dalton surprised everyone last year by putting up 3,398 passing yards and 20 touchdowns in the 15 games that he started as a rookie. he is only the third rookie quarterback to ever surpass the 3,000 yard mark. Putting up numbers such as these while being a rookie quarterback is uncommon but, to do it while playing against three of the top four passing defenses in the league (Pittsburgh, Cleveland, Baltimore) for a third of his games is even more incredible. Looking at the stats I believe Dalton can not only match his fantasy total of last year but, improve on it in his sophomore year.

During the 2011 regular season, the combined average of the three defenses would allow for 184.9 passing yards to opposing quarterbacks. Dalton was, on average, able to put up 236 passing yards against these teams during the five games he played against them. For a rookie quarterback to have the poise and skill set to consistently do well against the top defenses in the league is remarkable.

What makes me think that Dalton can do even better is that 1) he will already have a full season under his belt and 2) the Bengals organization has quietly put in place some key players to balance the offense out. Having those 15 games of experience, plus some postseason experience, gives Dalton the confidence and reassurement that he belongs with the rest of the top signal callers of the league.

I know Cincinnati lost two key offensive linemen in Bobbie Williams and Nate Livings but, they added Travelle Warton and Kevin Zeitler. Williams and Livings are great pass blocking guards as well as Warton and Zeitler but, Warton and Zeitler offer more to the run protection than the other two. Former New England Patriots running back, BenJarvus Green-Ellis, who has never fumbled in his NFL carrier, also signed with the Bengals this off season. Green-Ellis will more than likely be splitting the carries with aging Cedric Benson (30 years old), which will allow for a much improved running game. While the running game has seen improvements, this will also benefit Dalton.

If you look at the five games mentioned before against the top defenses, the Bengals only won one of them, and that was against the Browns. In each of the games they lost, a running back never put up more than 57 yards in a game but, if you look at the game they won, a running back broke the 100 yard mark. I believe that with this improved running game Dalton will find more success in running the play action more than he did in the 2011 year, which will allow for big plays to be made down the field. From a fantasy perspective, the more big plays that are made - the more fantasy points your player will receive.

Also, opposing defenses will have to focus more on the running game by stacking the box which would allow for Dalton to find the one-on-one match up down the field. This would allow for a greater amount of plays to be made to receivers up the middle since the opposing linebackers would be forced to play the run first, thus taking them out of position to break up the pass over the top. With receivers such as AJ Green, Andrew Hawkings, Mohamed Sanu, and Jermaine Gresham in the starting lineup, Dalton should be able to find the open target and make plays down the field.

Dalton has already proved that he is capable of playing against the best defenses, and he will have to do so again in 2012 if he wants to increase on his numbers from last year. With a year under his belt and some newly added talent around him, I believe Dalton is a legitimate starting QB in fantasy land who will be a great value pick as he won’t come off the board until the 11^th – 14^th round (if he even gets drafted). Don’t sleep on this sophomore QB!

For more Fantasy Football advice follow me on twitter @DannyFantasyFB

Do NOT Sleep on Jamaal Charles This Fantasy Season

Recovering from ACL surgery is one of the hardest obstacles an athlete can run into. This is no exception for Kansas City Chiefs RB Jamaal Charles. Back in Week 2 of the 2011 NFL season against the Detroit Lions, Charles suffered a knee injury that put him on the sidelines for the rest of the year. It was later determined that Charles had a ruptured left Anterior Cruciate Ligament, which is one of the major ligaments that stabilizes the knee joint. Luckily for Charles, and future fantasy owners, the odds are in his favor.

The injury occurred in Week 2 of last season, and the surgery date to have the ligament repaired was October 6^th, 2011. Week 1 of this upcoming NFL regular season is September 9^th, 2012 (just under a year from the surgery date). This gives Charles plenty of time to recover and strengthen the injured left knee. With ACL replacement surgery, the two main options surgeons have are to take a portion of one of your hamstring muscles, the group of muscles on the back of your leg and above the knee, or to take a portion of your patellar tendon, the tendon that attaches to your thigh muscle and wraps around your knee cap. I am unsure which of these Charles decided to go for but due to the fact that he’s a running back my guess would be that the surgeons chose to take a portion of his patellar ligament to replace the damaged ACL. If this is the case then the main recovery process wouldn’t to strengthen the ACL but, to strengthen the now shortened patellar tendon. The newly repaired ACL would still need therapy and strengthening but, nothing close to what it would have been prior to the surgery. With about a year to recover from the surgery and to strengthen the knee, I am quite certain that Charles will be 100% (or close to 100%) going into Week 1 against the Falcons.

I know most RB’s do not come back from an ACL tear to have an outstanding season the next year but, I feel quite optimistic about Jamaal Charles. He’s not known for his overwhelming size (5’11” and 199 lbs) which I believe plays to his advantage. This means that there is a lot less force acting on his newly repaired ACL compared to someone who is 6’5” and 250 lbs. Charles is also well known for his speed and agility which tells me that he has a high amount of type 2 muscle fibers in his legs, also known as fast twitch muscle fibers. Type 2 muscle fibers allow for quick and rapid muscle contractions. If this is the case, which I strongly believe is true, the amount of time that Charles’ ACL would be in use to stabilize his knee during a cut would be much shorter compared to a player who is not as quick as Charles. What I believe to be the key contributor is that when he makes cuts to the left or right, Charles seems to be in more of an upright position. To have the least amount of tension on the ACL, the knee should be flexed between 30 and 60 degrees. Being in more of an upright position when cutting will help decrease the tension Charles will put on his left knee. I believe this is also a strategy that Wes Welker used after he came back from his ACL surgery where he put up 1,165 receiving the next season.

Given all of the upside Charles has going forward from his surgery, along with having a top 10 run blocking offense, I believe he is ready to once again put up some huge numbers in the 2012 Fantasy Football season. I would still consider Charles as a number 1 Fantasy RB.

For more Fantasy Football advice follow me on twitter @DannyFantasyFB

Can You Really Compare Trent Richardson To Adrian Peterson?

Trent Richardson is the best running back to come out of college since Adrian Peterson. Versions of this phrase has been used on countless occasions ever since the 2012 NFL Draft but, how accurate are they? Will their rookie years be comparable? Is Trent Richardson the next Adrian Peterson?  From a fantasy prospective I would have to disagree; at least not for the 2012 year.

In 2007 Adrian Peterson tore up the NFL during his rookie year with his blistering speed and explosiveness raking up 1,341 rushing yards and 12 touchdowns for Minnesota. If you are expecting similar numbers from Trent Richardson in his upcoming rookie year with the Cleveland Browns then I am afraid that you might be in for a surprise. I am not questioning the overall talent Richardson brings to the organization as he has the potential and skill set that a team like the Browns can build around but, to have an effective running game a team needs much more than an elite running back.

The 2007 Minnesota Vikings arguably had the best run blocking in the NFL, with a solid offensive line anchored by Pro Bowl LT Steve Hutchinson as well as seasoned veteran, and Pro Bowl FB, Tony Richardson. With all of this talent aiding Peterson to move the ball up the field, Peterson was able to take advantage of the holes he was given and use his elusiveness to break free for a game changing run. The run protection Peterson had in 2007 cannot be comparable to the run protection the 2012 Cleveland Browns will have. Other than Joe Thomas, the Brown’s do not have an experienced player on the front line in either the starting positions or backup positions.

Also, Owen Marecic is not known to be an elite FB in the NFL like Tony Richardson was. These holes that Peterson was provided that helped him gain more yards might not be as available for Trent Richardson in the upcoming year. As skillful as he is, I do not believe Richardson can make up for the lack of run protection he will have to endure with the Cleveland blockers. In standard fantasy football leagues, a 30 yard touchdown run gives a player eight more fantasy points than a 10 yard run with no touchdown. These break out runs to the endzone will be harder to come by for Richardson in 2012 when compared to Peterson in 2007.

You also have to take into consideration that Adrian Peterson had a viable backup in Chester Taylor who picked up some of the workload (238 carries for Peterson, 157 carries for Taylor). I do not see offensive coordinator Brad Childress giving either Brandon Jackson or Montario Hardesty 157 carries, which would mean that Richardson would have the majority of the workload fall on him. Fantasy football enthusiasts might see that as a positive for Richardson since he will not be in a backfield committee but, I don’t see it quite that way. With Richardson’s ground and pound style of play, giving him such a high predicted work load with the lack of run blocking he seems he will have does not bode well for his chances of becoming injured. Can Richardson really stay healthy for a full 16 games under these circumstances? In my opinion, that’s a no.

Even if Richardson can somehow produce well in fantasy football, the risk of being absent for a portion of the season will hurt his fantasy value. Take a look at Darren Mcfadden - he puts up big numbers when he plays but, when he's in the trainer's room for the last nine games of the season, it does not benefit your fantasy team. I see can see the same outcome potentially happening to Richardson if he isn't provided with a legitimate backup running back or better run protection sometime soon.

Cleveland also plays in the AFC North which is arguably the hardest division a running back can play in, let alone a rookie running back. They’ll be seeing defenses such as Pittsburgh, Baltimore, and Cincinnati; all of whom were in the top ten in rushing defense in 2011. In 2007, Peterson played in a division with the Green Bay Packers, Detriot Lions, and Chicago Bears who were 14th, 23rd, and 24th in rushing defense respectively. Peterson did not have to worry about playing the top rushing defenses for the majority of his season where as Richardson will have to play them six times during the 16 game season. If Richardson is going to be productive in fantasy football then he is going to have to put up big numbers against teams that rarely give up stellar games to running back's.

Peterson had a total of 232.9 fantasy points in 2007 as a rookie running back, which is extremely hard to match no matter how much talent you possess. Although he was the number three overall selection in this year’s NFL draft, I do not predict Richardson to have the rushing yards and touchdowns Peterson had in his rookie year. So if you plan on picking Richardson for your 2012 Fantasy teams, do not pick him higher than as a low end No. 2 RB.

For more Fantasy Football advice follow me on twitter @DannyFantasyFB